As shown, my net worth took a notable hit in Q1 of 2025. The markets are going through turbulent times, and there’s a clear shift happening globally. The United States appears to be escalating trade tensions with many of its allies, citing trade deficits—and the elephant in the room is, of course, China.
I'm not a macroeconomic expert, and I don’t pretend to be. In this kind of environment, it’s incredibly difficult to predict how things will unfold. While I like staying informed and following global developments, I don’t have the confidence (or ego) to assume I can forecast the outcomes of such large-scale geopolitical shifts.
But one thing I do have is conviction—and that’s in long-term optimism.
I truly believe that 10 or 20 years from now, the world will be a better place. That doesn't mean I'm naive. I fully recognize that a reordering of the global trade system could have serious implications for markets. As someone who grew up believing in free markets and the principles of Adam Smith, the increasing use of tariffs feels like a blunt instrument—often counterproductive.
I recently rewatched an old video from President Ronald Reagan discussing the unintended consequences of tariffs, and many of his points still ring true today.
Focusing On What I Can Control
While macro headlines are grabbing attention, my focus remains on what I can control—my savings rate, my investment discipline, and my long-term strategy.
I continue to save a portion of my monthly paycheck and invest regularly into the markets. Right now, asset prices are effectively “on sale,” and given my long time horizon, I’m not overly concerned about what happens over the next few months.
Portfolio Allocation Update
My high-risk portfolio—which focuses on aggressive, momentum-driven strategies—has been shifted to 100% cash. We’re currently trading below the 200-day moving average, and based on my system, it doesn’t make sense to be heavily invested in such an environment. These strategies tend to outperform in favorable market conditions, not in risk-off phases like we’re seeing now.
Unfortunately, the portfolio took a significant hit earlier this year, but that’s within the expected range of outcomes. High-risk momentum stocks are usually the first to get sold off when uncertainty spikes and investors rotate into safer assets.
Putting Things Into Perspective
I think it’s important to zoom out and put everything into perspective.
The first quarter of this century has already seen a staggering number of historic events:
It began with the dot-com crash
Followed by the Global Financial Crisis
Then the European debt crisis
A once-in-a-century global pandemic
A war in Europe
And now, a resurgence of protectionism and tariffs reshaping global trade
This century is already full of material for the history books. And yet—through all of it, businesses were founded, they grew, and they transformed the way we live.
I still remember seeing the first iPhone as a kid, and how fascinated I was by this new innovation—and by the visionary who drove it, Steve Jobs. That moment was just the beginning of how technology would shape our world.
Fast forward to today: we're now two years into what many are calling the AI boom, kicked off by the launch of ChatGPT. Once again, the world is on the cusp of transformation.
Most long-term data points—like global life expectancy, literacy rates, poverty reduction, and access to technology—are still steadily improving, even if the headlines suggest otherwise.
Yes, the world faces enormous challenges. But I firmly believe that the opportunities outweigh the risks. Over the long run, I’m confident that this current correction will be viewed as just a small dent in the giant success story of the optimists.
Just like it’s always been.
